Friday Night Video

One of these days I'll start writing genuine blog postings again, the kind with opinions and analysis and links and reasonably informed ideas, but for now I'm just allowing myself to turn into an alcoholic, womanizing, degenerate gambler. This will probably support better writing down the line, so consider it an investment in our mutual futures.

This week's video comes courtesy of...The Beatles! Not only have The Beatles been the greatest inspiration to Rick Springfield's music (it's true--really), they also provided the inspiration to my Halloween costume this year. Oh, and they made some good music, too. Below is an odd video for "Hello Goodbye" with John, Paul, George and Ringo donning the iconic Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band uniforms. Although from the neck up I'll be dressed as John Lennon circa mid 70's, the outfit is actually the blue one which Paul wears. In other words, true Beatles fans will be both confused and angry at my outfit choice. Whatever. It's better than devil horns...which constituted the entirety of last year's weak costuming effort.

Trick or treat.

You Betcha!

Last week was a modest return to the win column for this...column. After suffering through a miserable 5-9 week, my first below .500 on the season, I bounced back with a solid, money-winning 8-6 performance. This week I'm getting my picks out a day early, so take note that betting lines may change prior to kickoff. There's always some movement of the lines on game day, so it's often best to try to lock in the best bets before Vegas clues in.

Last Week:

Against the Spread: 8-6
Mortal Locks: 2-1
Net profit: $16.63 (note: a $5 parlay bet did not go through)

Overall Totals:

Against the Spread: 45-29 (.608)
Mortal Locks: 9-6
Net profit: $105.12

Week 7 (road teams are always listed first):

1) San Diego (-5.5) vs. Kansas City

The Chargers are a talented 2-3 disaster while the Chiefs are an untalented 1-5 coming off their first win and playing scrappy football of late. It might be time to admit the Chargers just aren't as good as advertised. Philip Rivers is having a fine year, but the Charger defense is in shambles and the offense can't seem to get more than field goals once inside the red zone. I do think the Chiefs will make a game of this, but I also think this is the week the Chargers either get it together or fall off the radar completely. Needing to cover less than a TD, I'm taking the Chargers to find their way back into the playoff hunt. Tomlinson should find the end zone at least twice this week.

2) Indianapolis (-14.5) vs. St. Louis

A 5-0 juggernaut against an 0-6 team in serious danger of not winning a game the rest of the season (they've got Tennessee in week 14 circled on their schedule, I'm sure). Mark Bulger, when protected, is capable of directing some scoring drives for the Rams, but Peyton Manning's Colts are coming off a bye week, playing in a dome not unlike their own, and they're simply clicking better than any other offense in the league. They also get oft-injured Bob Sanders back on defense and his presence always causes trouble for opposing offenses. Two TD's and a half point may seem like a lot to cover, but it's not. They should be up by three TD's at the half.

3) Green Bay (-9) vs. Cleveland

The Browns are not what I would call a good team. Far from it. Even so, even with one of the worst QB situations in the league, even with one of the most ancient do-nothing RBs in the league, the Browns have shown some fight of late...playing Pittsburgh last week a lot closer than the 13-point loss would indicate. I don't have a good feeling about this spread, but the Cleveland defense has been serviceable of late, and their hit and miss (and miss) offense seems due for a decent day. Call it a hunch, but at home I think Cleveland can keep this one within the 9-point spread.

4) Minnesota (+5.5) vs. Pittsburgh

Count me amongst the group of people just waiting for the day when Brett Favre comes crashing back down to earth. It's coming. In spite of that inevitable future, the Vikings are an exceptionally balanced attack (right now) and at 6-0 it's somewhat unfathomable that they're being given 5.5 points here. It's not that I think Pittsburgh can't cover this spread, but this is one of those lines where you take the Vikings just because it's a silly spread. An undefeated team playing great football getting almost six points as an underdog? Take it. I know Antoine Winfield is likely out, and I know Big Ben Roethlisberger has been tearing up secondaries of late, but take the Vikes.

5) New England (-15.5) vs. Tampa Bay

This game is being played across the pond in jolly old England. Speaking of England, have you heard about the play I wrote for the upcoming BritBits6 production? (smooth segue, Kraig...smooth) As a general rule, avoid betting on games where international travel and foreign stadiums are involved. It gets too unpredictable. How will the turf be? How will the players handle the jet lag? How will the neutral crowd impact things? I hate answering those questions...because you can't. The Pats are coming off one of the most impressive thrashings in the history of pro football, and the Bucs are a woeful 0-6. This would seem to be an easy spread for the Pats to cover, but I'm going against them here. I expect both teams to keep it on the ground more than expected, and that should lead to a lower-than-expected score. I think THIS is the week the Bucs finally cover. Just don't bet on it, okay?

6) San Francisco (+3) vs. Houston

This is a battle of two Jekyll and Hyde teams---you never know which team is going to show up. The 49'ers are well rested coming off a bye week, but the big news is the return of Frank Gore to the lineup, as well as the debut of rookie WR Michael Crabtree. Having been blown out by Atlanta before the bye, I think Mike Singletary is going to have these guys ready to roll. Count on it. Houston is a tough offense to deal with, and they're coming off an impressive win against the Bengals, but take the underdog here in what should be a close, tough game.

7) NY Jets (-7) vs. Oakland

A few weeks ago this spread might've been closer to 20 points, but since then the Raiders have shocked the Eagles while the Jets have gone into freefall, losing three in a row. After the upset of the Eagles last week, I don't have a clue what to expect from the Raiders. Their offense is still awful, but the Raiders do have playmakers...the equivalent of a bad heavyweight fighter who can still hurt you with that one good punch. Expect the Jets to rely heavily on the legs of Thomas Jones and Leon Washington to take the pressure off rookie QB Mark Sanchez. That should keep the score down and keep that 7-point spread in play. That said, gimme the Jets. The Raiders might come out with some added confidence this week, but this is a perfect get-right game for the Jets. Take the Jets to cover...barely.

8) Buffalo (+7) vs. Carolina

Trent Edwards is out, Ryan Fitzpatrick is in. Big deal. Buffalo's offense is a disaster either way. Their defense has gotten a bit healthier, but Carolina should have little trouble moving the ball on the ground. I'd also expect Steve Smith to get more looks than in recent weeks and that's usually trouble for opposing defenses. Carolina is an enigmatic team (like many so far), but there's no mystery to Buffalo. They're a mess. Take Carolina to cover.

9) Chicago (Pk) vs. Cincinnati

The Bengals were upset by the Texas last week but they're still getting a lot of respect in the point spread. This game is a straight pick'em, but I think you have to pick Chicago here, even on the road. The Bears were very solid in a road defeat to the Atlanta Falcons. While they still can't get the ground game going, Jay Cutler has plenty of weapons at his disposal. Add in the lost of Antwan Odom on the Cincinnati defensive line, and I think the Bears will have plenty of success this week. This one may not even be close. Take the Bears.

10) New Orleans (-7) vs. Miami

Just how good is Miami? They've been on a roll of late with Chad Henne under center and the wildcat offense running crazy, but are they good enough to stay within a TD of what is possibly the best team in the NFL? I'm not buying it. I've been betting against Miami most of the season, so maybe you should just ignore this pick, but asking the Saints to cover seven points after demolishing the Giants last week seems like a bargain. Take Drew Brees and his powerful Saints here.

11) Atlanta (+4) vs. Dallas

From strictly a football perspective, here's a fun game to watch. The Falcons are a great team, but the Cowboys are coming off a bye (always a plus) and they know this is a good litmus test for where they are. The Cowboys will be as healthy as they've been since the start of the season, getting Felix Jones back, but should they be favored here? As much as I think the Cowboys have been unfairly maligned in the mainstream media (their only losses were last-minute defeats to the Giants and the Broncos...combined record of 11-1), it's hard to see them as a favorite here. They still have problems stopping good WRs (hello, Roddy White) and they don't look like a team ready to blow anyone out. I hate picking against the Boys, but if the Falcons are getting four points...take the Falcons.

12) Arizona (+7) vs. NY Giants

I like the Cardinals more than most, but this line is a dramatic overreaction to last week's debacle between the Saints and Giants. True, the Giants were dominated from start to finish, but the Saints represented the first competition New York had faced in several weeks. Now they come home to face a fairly one-dimensional offense. The Cardinals are awful against the pass, and Manning has significant firepower at his disposal with Steve "don't call me the other" Smith, Mario Manningham, and Hakeem Nicks. Coming off the loss, I love the Giants to reassert themselves as a legitimate Super Bowl contender. It'll be a shootout, but expect the Giants to cover easily.

13) Philadelphia (-7) vs. Washington

Speaking of over-reactive lines, how do you like the Eagles as only a TD-favorite against the pathetic Redskins? I like it a lot. Somehow I don't think that Jim Zorn turning over the play-calling responsibilities is going to miraculously revive the offense. And somehow I don't think the Eagles, a team with arguably the most explosive, most multi-faceted offense in the league, is going to stumble the week after they were humiliated by the Raiders. On Monday night? In front of a national audience? Not a chance. The Eagles will roll.

Mortal Lock #1: Giants (-7)
Mortal Lock #2: Eagles (-7)
Mortal Lock #3: San Diego (-5.5)

This week's bets:

1) San Diego (-5.5): $25 to win $22.73
2) NY Giants (-7): $25 to win $21.74
3) Philadelphia (-7): $25 to win $21.74
4) Minnesota (+5.5): $25 to win $22.73
5) New Orleans (-7): $20 to win $19.05
6) Chicago (Pk): $20 to win $18.18
7) 4-team parlay picking Giants, Eagles, Chargers and Bears: $10 to win $117.39

Happy Wagering.

Friday Night Video

A big happy birthday shout-out to Weird Al Yankovic who turns 50 today. He's still cranking out the musical parodies and nobody does it better. His 1983 album "In 3-D" was the first cassette tape I ever bought, but it still holds up as musical genius thanks to such classic take-offs as Eat It, I Lost On Jeopardy, and King of Suede. Here's a more recent spoof he did of R. Kelly's "Trapped in the Closet" called "Trapped in the Drive Thru." Much like the R. Kelly song, it's far too long (11 minutes!!!) and it only takes about three minutes before you're ready to shoot yourself in the head, but it's hilarious for as long as you can last.

Hunting Wabbits

Sweden Burns Bunnies for Warmth

"Thousands of stray rabbits in Sweden are being shot, frozen and then burned for heat. Stockholm even hires rabbit hunters for the task, like Tommy Tuvuynger, a modern day Elmer Fudd."

(courtesy of Nan L.)

What would YOU do?

This story is just amazing. The would-be-victim is a friend of mine from Dallas, David Ethridge. What he did may not have been the smartest thing, and even he doesn't suggest other people follow his lead, but it's hard not to admire someone who refuses to be a victim. This is both a terrifying tale and an exhilarating one. I'm glad David is okay, and I'm equally happy that another asshole is off the streets (all thanks to David). I'm telling you, Dallas is 1,000 times more violent than New York City. It's no joke. Dallas scares the shit out of me late at night.

I dare you to tell him otherwise.

You Betcha?

Ever since John Williams had the audacity to commend me on my picks and not-so-subtly imply that I might know just what the hell I'm doing, my picks have gone South for the winter. Last week was the first week I was below .500, though I still managed to be correct on my marquee pick of Indianapolis covering the ridiculous 4.5 point spread against Tennessee. It was the lone bright spot in an otherwise dismal week. Yep, it's true---I'm a fraud. Due to time constraints this morning (um, hungover), this week you'll get all the fraudulent picks without any of the bogus commentary. Have at it, suckers.

Last Week:

Against the Spread: 5-9
Mortal Locks: 1-2
Net profit: -$74.75

Overall Totals:

Against the Spread: 37-23 (.617)
Mortal Locks: 7-5
Net profit: $88.49

Week 6 (road teams are always listed first):

1) Kansas City (+6.5) vs. Washington: take KC

2) Houston (+4) vs. Cincinnati: take Cincinnati

3) Cleveland (+14.5) vs. Pittsburgh: take Cleveland

4) Baltimore (+3) vs. Minnesota: take Baltimore

5) St. Louis (+10) vs. Jacksonville: take Jacksonville

6) NY Giants (+3) vs. New Orleans: take NY Giants

7) Carolina (-3) vs. Tampa Bay: take Carolina

8) Detroit (+14) vs. Green Bay: take Green Bay

9) Philadelphia (-15) vs. Oakland: take Philadelphia

10) Arizona (+3) vs. Seattle: take Seattle

11) Buffalo (+10) vs. NY Jets: take Buffalo

12) Tennessee (+9.5) vs. New England: take New England

13) Chicago (+3.5) vs. Atlanta: take Atlanta

14) Denver (+3.5) vs. San Diego: take San Diego

Mortal Lock #1: Philadelphia (-15)
Mortal Lock #2: Green Bay (-14)
Mortal Lock #3: Carolina (-3)

This week's bets:

1) Jacksonville (-10): $20 to win $18.18
2) Carolina (-3): $25 to win $18.52
3) Green Bay (-14): $25 to win $22.73
4) Philadelphia (-15): $25 to win $22.73
5) Kansas City (+6.5): $22.42 to win $20.38
6) 5-game parlay picking Baltimore, Jacksonville, NY Giants, Carolina, Philadelphia: $5 to win $113.24

Happy Betting.

Save the Date

Good news! It was just announced that another short play of mine, this one titled Devil May Dare, has been selected for inclusion in the next installment of Mind the Gap's BritBit series. This will be BritBits6 and, as you may recall, I also had a play titled Daft in Death which was a part of BritBits5. There will only be FOUR performances this time, so I highly suggest you get your tickets in advance as we had several sellouts during the last run. The showtimes and dates are as follows:

November 6th, 8pm
November 7th, 3pm & 8pm
November 8th, 7pm

It's just around the corner! You can get your tickets here.

I'll have more information in a later post, but I can tell you that my play is a comedy (of course) and is of dubious moral character (of course).

Hope to see you all there!

Something Needs My Bipartisan Support

I'm still not in much of a blogging mood, but here's a story which combines two of my favorite things---politics and gratuitous cleavage.

Those flotation devices belong to progressive Republican blogger Meghan McCain. Evidently some of her Twitter followers called her a "slut" for posting this artistic gem last Wednesday. Shame on them! Shame on them, I say. The outrage over this picture resulted in her blog post entitled "Don't Call Me A Slut." I agree. Call her an opportunist.

In either case, I'm not really criticizing Meghan. Like any 25-year-old girl or boy she says a lot of stupid things, but unlike most members of the GOP, she seems more than willing to admit her mistakes and learn from them. While I woudn't personally discourage Meghan from being anything less than true to herself, I would hate to see a fresh, open-minded voice become marginalized for relying too heavily on her obvious sex appeal. If that should happen, however...Meghan, dear, the Democratic party is a big tent party. We'll make room for you and your big...ideas.

Love,
Kraig

Friday Night Video

Still can't seem to break free from this Phantom Zone of non-blogging I find myself in, but I can always motivate to slap a video up here with some pointless, meandering commentary! Actually, you won't even get much commentary today. What you will get is a great, live performance of Six O'Clock News by Canada's Kathleen Edwards, a fantastic alt-country performer. Due to its unerring appearance on many of my mix tapes a few years ago, it's quite possible I've heard this song more than any other song in the last five years...and I still never get tired of it.

My Skip Gates Moment

If you saw my 4am Tweet on Sunday morning, then you already know that I had some sort of a run-in with the NYPD...the circumstances of which are simply ridiculous. I was coming home from the Lower East Side after a late night with friends Rich D. and Leah G.. While I certainly had been drinking, I was not the least bit inebriated. So, rather than spend $35 for a cab ride all the way back to the Heights, I decided to brave the subway system knowing full well that weekend construction, along with limited late-night service, would result in at least an hour-long trip. Not a big deal---I do it all the time.

When I finally caught the A-train local at West 4th Street, it was about 2:45am and the train was, of course, virtually empty...save for the usual assortment of late-night riff-raff. Knowing that my train would dead-end at 168th Street (again, due to construction), there was no risk of over-sleeping in closing my eyes and taking a 45-minute nap. While I never was fully asleep for more than a minute or two, when the train pulled into the stop at 125th Street, a police officer walked on to the train and, using his night stick, loudly banged on the seat next to me. I was not asleep, but I did have my eyes closed and I also had my foot up on the empty seat next to me. Remember---this train is 90% empty. I opened my eyes (more like they popped out of my head) and the officer said to step off the train. More than a bit confused, I asked what for, to which he said I was sleeping on the train and I had to get off.

If you've ever had to wait for a train at 3am, you know that the LAST thing you want to do is step off the train you ALREADY had waited 30 minutes for. I reluctantly stepped off the train, wide awake...not sluggish and fully sober. Here's the rough dialogue which took place:

Me: I don't understand. Why can't I just get back on the train? I'm clearly not drunk and I'm wide awake.

Officer: Take the next train.

Me: But why? This train is still here. I don't want to wait another 30 minutes. This one is right here.

Officer: Take the next train.

Me: But that's ridiculous. Why?

Officer: Go over there and sit down.

Me: Why?

Officer: Go sit down.

Me: I don't wanna sit down. I wanna get back on this train and get home. I don't even understand what I did.

Officer: You were taking up more than one seat. It's a quality of life violation.

Me: A quality of life violation??? Every person on that train is taking up more than one seat. And I'm the only one on there who isn't pissing themselves!

Officer: Don't make me ask you again. Sit down.

Me: No. I'm gonna stand. I've done nothing wrong and I don't have to sit if I don't want to.

At this point the train, which had just been waiting there for several minutes, finally closes its doors and departs.

Me: Great.

Officer: Let me see some ID.

I hand him my ID and, after some cooperative back and forth, he asks if I have any warrants.

Me: I'm wanted in Arizona for taking up three whole seats on a bus once! But I was fatter then. Of course, I don't have any warrants.

In retrospect, I have no idea why I used Arizona as the state of choice for my belligerent response, but that's hardly the point, I suppose. I was now surrounded by five of NYPD's finest and my ID was being run. One of the new officers brings out some Mentos to give to one of the other cops. I hold my hand out...

Me: I hope you brought enough for everyone.

To his credit, he did! He gave me one and I chewed it as the jerky officer continued to check my warrant status. I started talking to a different officer at this point.

Me: This is ridiculous. You can see with your own eyes that I'm not doing anything wrong. I had my leg up on a second seat. The right thing to do would be to wake me, warn me, and send me on my way. Why you gotta pull me off the train like this? This is an absurd waste of your time and mine.

Officer: It's for your own good. There are a lot of bad people out there who will come up to people sleeping on a train and use a razor blade to cut open their pockets and steal their wallet.

Me: Then arrest them! Arresting people so they can't become victims is like the worst preventative strategy I've ever heard.

The jerky officer comes back over and returns my ID. This has now been going on for about 15 minutes.

Officer: No warrants.

Me: No shit.

Officer: I'm gonna give you a court summons to appear. You can either pay the fine or request a hearing.

Me: New York's finest. Five officers to make a point about putting my leg up on an empty A-train at 3am. You guys are awesome.

So now I have a $50 fine for "obstruction seating." Was I a jerk? Yes. Absolutely. However, while I have a tremendous amount of respect for law enforcement, I have even more respect for common sense. There was no value in him pulling me off the train. And if he wasn't going to give me a ticket before I opened my mouth, he shouldn't have given it after. It's one thing if the officer in question was out there writing tickets to everyone doing this, but he wasn't. He singled me out and then, as if to punish me, demanded I sit in a corner and take a time out.

Nobody puts Kraig in a corner. Nobody.

You Betcha!

Good morning, and welcome back to You Betcha! This is my weekly segment in which I pick NFL games against the spread and then either crow about how brilliant and highly skilled I am, or kvetch about how it's all luck and how 90% of the time it comes down to whether the team in the lead decides to kick that pointless field goal in the waning seconds of a game, or whether they just run it out (we like long sentences around here). Let's just say that last week's fourth quarters were not for the faint of heart as more than a few of my picks turned into late losses. What I did get right, however, was the prediction that my brilliant start to picking games this season would finally ease. Even so, an 8-6 week is above .500 and still nothing to sneeze at. Let's go to the numbers:

Last Week:

Against the Spread: 8-6
Mortal Locks: 1-2
Net profit: -$45.46

Overall Totals:

Against the Spread: 32-14 (.696)
Mortal Locks: 6-3
Net profit: $163.24

Week 5 (road teams are always listed first):

1) Minnesota (-11) vs. St. Louis

Taking an 11-point underdog at home is always a tempting choice, but these Rams are far and away the worst team in football right now (lost 35-0 to the Niners last week), and the Vikings defense should have no trouble getting to Kyle Boller behind center. There's a slim possibility of a post-Monday night letdown following Brett Favre's triumphant victory over Green Bay, but it's a good thing they can then just hand off to Adrian Peterson 30 times. On any given Sunday...just not this one. Take the Vikes easily.

2) Dallas (-8) vs. Kansas City
The Cowboys have given me fits all season long, but this is the week they pay me back. Yes, they're banged up and playing without Roy Williams and Felix Jones this week, and yes, the Chiefs are primed for a breakout game at some point...but not this week. I expect a wide open shootout with both teams landing some long-distance body blows. In the end, however, after the dust clears, look for Tony Romo to have regained some of his swagger with a three-TD performance. Dallas will cover.

3) Washington (+5) vs. Carolina

The oddsmakers continue to give Washington far too much credit, and each week that makes their game a veritable bargain. The Panthers aren't a great team by any means, but they do have an excellent ground game and the option to go vertical with Steve Smith. Both of these teams are cut from the never-know-who-is-showing-up cloth, but this week Carolina comes to play and the Redskins don't. If this game is a blowout, I wouldn't count on Jim Zorn surviving the week. Take Carolina.

4) Tampa Bay (+16) vs. Philadelphia
Wow, that's a lot of points to be giving. And you know what? I'm taking them. Philly is clearly the superior team here, and they return from a bye week healthier than they've been all season, but I still believe the Bucs just aren't as miserable as their 0-4 record suggests. They showed a lot of life against Washington last week, and they're not simply playing out a lost season. I admit this could go entirely the other way, but I like the Bucs if they're getting that many points.

5) Oakland (+16) vs. NY Giants
Speaking of 16-point spreads. Here's the difference, however---I hate Oakland with a passion that burns hotter than Tom Cable's face-breaking fist. Oakland can't throw, which means they can't run. Their defense is adequate enough, but the Giants are one of the most well-rounded teams in the league. Even if Eli Manning doesn't play, and it looks like he will, I'd still take a David Carr-led Giants to cover this spread. The Raiders will never turn around so long as Al Davis is breathing. Take the Giants to run, throw, and sack their way to a huge spread-covering victory.

6) Cleveland (+6) vs. Buffalo

The Browns found a spark last week with Derek Anderson, James Harrison, and Mohamed Mossaquoi effectively replacing the awful triumvirate of Brady Quinn, Jamal Lewis, and Braylon Edwards. The Browns offense is now officially upgraded to partly crappy with a 30% chance of score. Even so, how do you not take the Bills at home when they only need to win by a TD? Yes, they're a bit of a mess right now, but they're loaded with talent and there's few teams better to "get right" against than the Browns. Take the Bills and give the points.

7) Cincinnati (+9) vs. Baltimore
The Bengals at 3-1 are one of the early surprises of the season (they should be 4-0), and that's why this spread is closer than it should be. Look, I like the Bengals, but the Ravens may very well be the best team in football. They suffered a tough loss to the Patriots this week and now they return home to face a good, but overrated teams. This is a no-brainer. Baltimore is going to roll to victory EASILY in this one. I'd give the Bengals an extra five points if I could.

8) Pittsburgh (-11) vs. Detroit

It's unclear who will be starting at QB for Detroit today, but it won't matter. Whether it's Culpepper or Stafford, the Steelers should cover the 11 points on the road. Detroit is constantly improving and no longer can be considered the league's punchline (and punching bag), but the Steelers are the Super Bowl Champs and are finally starting to play like it. Rashard Mendenhall breathed some life into their already potent ground game last week, and Big Ben continued to be the quintessential pocket QB-leader. Take the Steelers and give the points.

9) Atlanta (+1.5) vs. San Fran
The Falcons have had a bye week to prepare themselves, and I actually think that's going to be the difference. Although they're 2-1, Atlanta hasn't really looked all that great and Matt Ryan has struggled to recapture last season's magical connection with Roddy White. Still, while the 49'ers are a true up and coming team, especially now that they've manged to get Michael Crabtree under contract, these Falcons are a Super Bowl contender if they stay healthy and mature. I like the Falcons to win, so I'm definitely taking those points, too.

10) New England (-3.5) vs. Denver
It's hard to believe Denver is 4-0, but that's what a good defense will do for you. And while their offense has struggled, it's been efficient. Kyle Orton has avoided mistakes as he attempts to develop chemistry with Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal. But so what. These are the Patriots. They're getting better week in and week out and they're exactly the sort of offense which could expose Denver's defensive weaknesses. I know these aren't the Patriots from 2007, but anytime they're only a 3.5 favorite I'm going to pick them.

11) Houston (+5.5) vs. Arizona
If I could avoid picking this game, I would. Arizona is the more balanced team here and they're coming off a bye week, but Houston is one of those teams that seems possible of rising up and throwing 40 points on the board in any given week. They might give up 50 points in the process, but they can score. Be that as it may, I don't trust Houston. Or Arizona. But since I have to pick someone, give me the Cardinals at home.

12) Jacksonville (+1.5) vs. Seattle (-1.5)

Did I miss something? I know Matt Hasselbeck is expected back from his rib injury this week, but how are the Jaguars not favored here? They've scored more points in each successive week of the season, have won two in a row, and David Garrard is stepping up and taking the load off of Maurice Jones-Drew's shoulders. Seattle is a tough place to play, and the Jags are beatable in the passing game, but it's the Jaguars who should be favored here...not the Seahawks.

13) Indianapolis (-4.5) vs. Tennessee
What??? The undefeated Colts are just a 4.5 point favorite against the one-dimensional 0-4 Titans??? Bet the farm. No commentary needed...this is a mortal lock and a bizarre point spread.

14) NY Jets (-2.5) vs. Miami
I haven't a clue. Miami stunned me with their dominating curb-stomp of Buffalo last week, so I literally have no idea how this is going down. Two rookie QBs at the helm, but it's the Jets defense which should cause more problems. I have no feel for this game whatsoever, but take the Jets to blitz the hell out of Chad Henne.

Mortal Lock #1: Indianapolis (-4.5)
Mortal Lock #2: Baltimore (-9)
Mortal Lock #3: Buffalo (-6)

I've got a good feeling this week and I'm putting my money where my mouth is:

1) Dallas (-8): $20 to win $18.18
2) Carolina (-5): $20 to win $18.18
3) Buffalo (-6): $35 to win $30.43
4) Baltimore (-9): $30 to win $26.09
5) Jacksonville (+1.5): $20 to win $18.18
6) Indianapolis (-4.5): $45 to win $42.86
7) Minnesota (-11): $20 to win $17.39
8) 5-game parlay picking Minnesota, Carolina, Buffalo, Baltimore and Indy: $5 to win $119.36
9) 7-game parlay picking Minnesota, Buffalo, Baltimore, Atlanta, New England, Jacksonville and Indy: $5 to win $458.51

Happy betting.

But what I really want to do is direct.

Filmmaking is something that's run in my family for the better part of fifty years now. I have an Academy Award-winning cousin, a B-movie schlock-master uncle, and a supremely talented cinematographer step-brother. I, too, have dabbled in the industry from a screenwriting perspective, though with far less success than the aforementioned relatives. But while my talents may be best suited for sitting behind a keyboard, it's the overall miracle of movie magic which has always enthralled me. Making a movie, no matter how brilliant or awful the final product, is sort of like making a baby. It may be ugly, both the process and the end result, but you're gonna love that kid no matter what. This is why I enjoy watching the DVD extras for bad movies. Even though the movie may have been awful, seeing the enthusiasm of the people behind the scenes, and seeing their talents---however misused---reminds me that even ugly babies need love, too.

From time to time I've had the pleasure of adding my hand to a few, very small film projects. Easily the most enjoyable of these film ventures were the two years I partnered with Brian P. as entrants in the annual 24-Hour Video Race of Dallas. It looks like they've dramatically changed up the rules this year, but back in 2004 and 2005, the two years in which we competed, the rules were simple: Each team has 24 hours to write, shoot, edit and deliver a short movie to the finish line. To ensure spontaneity, at the stroke of midnight---when the race begins---a series of key elements are revealed to the competitors, all of which must be included in the script. There are also a few different categories for the entrants, all based around the number of people on your crew. Brian and I were entered under the "guerrilla" category, which meant that no more than five people could be on the crew---not counting the actors.

The video below was our 2004 entry. The surprise elements we needed to include were as follows:

Location: playground
Prop: ladder
Theme: easy money
Dialogue: (actually, I can't recall...even after watching this again; Brian?)

Although we managed to turn our tape in at 11:58pm, just a minute before the deadline, due to a technical glitch, the tape was time-coded...but BLANK. We were disqualified. They still allowed our movie to screen with the other competitors at The Angelika in Dallas, however, and it was clear our film was the best of the lot. Sadly, we'd have to wait until 2005 to try and seek revenge. This version of the movie is more smoothly edited than the one we finished at 11:58pm that night, but its integrity remains in tact. This is what we made...in 24 hours.

Friday Night Video

Been falling down on the blog job of late, I know, but that's why it's such a good idea to have these routine blog features. Between the Friday Night Video and Sunday's "You Betcha!" segment, I have enough structure to get at least two posts done a week. It's a long, holiday weekend here (thank you, Columbus Day...most absurd, but most welcome holiday of the year), so I'll try to make up for it with a few "quality" postings over the weekend. In the meantime, here's your weekly dose of Kraig-picked music.

This week I'm digging back into the days when female-folk-pop dominated my CD player. It may be hard to believe given that I just assaulted your ears with two months worth of Rick Springfield songs, but for a solid five-year period I was neck-deep into the musical stylings of Lucy Kaplansky, Ani DiFranco, the Indigo Girls, Tish Hinojosa, and Dar Williams. That last one, Dar, had one album in particular which remains one of my favorites from top to bottom. You won't find a bad track on Mortal City, but you will find a diverse range of songs that move seamlessly from playful to defiant to makes-me-want-to-kill-myself. That's pretty much the range of emotions I experience on a day-to-day basis, so the album is a natural fit.

The first song on the album, As Cool As I Am, definitely skews more towards the defiant angle. The main refrain of "I will not be afraid of women" has a different meaning in the song than it does for me, but it was still a nice mantra for the super awkward college-Kraig. It didn't work. They terrified me then, and they terrify me still. This version is from a live performance on Austin City Limits back in 2001. I wasn't in the audience when this taped, but I was in the building grading screenplays. Pointless factoid, but there you go. It's a rather peppy version which, unfortunately, omits the didgeridoo used on the master, but it's a fun anthem whether you're a boy or a girl. The lyrics are unbelievably clever. Enjoy.

You Betcha!

Another week, another post in which I try to pick the winners of NFL games against the spread. But just as Yoda once instructed Luke on Dagobah, there is no "try," only "do." Thus far, through two weeks, it's been all "do" for me, as evidenced by an astonishing 24-8 record against the spread. The early weeks of the NFL season are always the best time for picking winners as it takes the betters and the sports books a little bit of time to get on the same page. This results in several weekly "bargains" being available when the lines come out. Now, in the fourth week of the season, there are fewer bargains to be had and it becomes a little bit more like guesswork.

Last Week:

Against the Spread: 12-4
Mortal Locks: 3-0
Net profit: $196.66

Overall Totals:

Against the Spread: 24-8
Mortal Locks: 5-1
Net profit: $208.70

Week 4 (road teams are always listed first):

1) Oakland (+9) vs. Houston (-9)

The Texans defense has been giving up big plays to opposing RBs all year, and they might very well do so again today against Darren McFadden. But while the Oakland ground game might have success, there's little hope for much of an aerial attack so long as JaMarcus Russell is under center. I don't expect this to be a blowout as Nnamdi Asomugha should be able to contain Andre Johnson somewhat, and I do expect one long TD play from Oakland's stable of sprinting WRs, but in the end the Texans have too many weapons to not win this game by more than nine points. Take Houston in a must-win game for them.

2) Tennessee (-3) vs. Jacksonville (+3)

It's Chris Johnson vs. Maurice Jones-Drew in a battle of two of the best ground games. With the Titans a disappointing 0-3 to start the season, this is another of those proverbially must-win games. But while both teams employ a similar offensive strategy, it's the Jaguars who have better balance and are better equipped to come back if they fall behind early. This should be close, but I like Jacksonville at home getting three points. Look for Torry Holt to finally have his first TD as a member of the Jags.

3) Baltimore (+1.5) vs. New England (-1.5)

This is the marquee matchup of the week as both teams can make a case for being the best team in the league. The Patriots have looked inconsistent, but each week Tom Brady gets a little sharper and the confidence in him as the league's best QB returns. Baltimore's Joe Flacco, however, has also been elevated from the role of "careful steward" to that of a legitimate weapon. On paper, the Ravens are the better pick here...but games aren't played on paper. There's a good chance Wesley Welker returns from injury this week, and that's one more weapon for Brady to lead the Pats to victory. They'll cover. Take the Pats.

4) Cincinnati (-7) vs. Cleveland (+7)

Who predicted Cincinnati's shocking upset over the Steelers last week? This guy right here. I know the Bengals are on the road this week, and I know they're sort of a rough 2-1, but only having to cover a TD against Browns? This is the week Carson Palmer finally clicks on all gears and reminds us why he's so vital to their success. Cleveland is simply awful and a QB change is not going to make a huge difference. Take the Bengals to cover easily.

5) NY Giants (-9.5) vs. Kansas City (+9.5)

One of the league's best teams versus one of its worst. It's a big spread, but the Giants beat Tampa last week 24-0 and I don't see the Chiefs being able to muster much more of a fight than the Bucs did. Plaxico Burress is not missed on this team one bit. Take the Giants and the equally electrifying Mario Manningham to cover.

6) Detroit (+10) vs. Chicago (-10)

Detroit finally won last week, avoiding the ignominious honor of losing 20 games in a row. It was a legit win, too, as rookie QB Matt Stafford showed why he was worthy of being the league's #1 draft pick this off-season. It will not be the last game the Lions win this year, but their next win won't come this week. Ten points is a tempting spread to jump in and take the Lions, but all signs point to the Bears really opening it up on offense. Jay Cutler is finally looking like the stud QB they traded for, and his WRs are as talented as they are raw. By the end of the year, this should be one of the league's best passing offenses. You'll see a lot of that today as the Bears score at least five TDs and cover the spread.

7) Tampa (+9) vs. Washington (-9)

The Bucs have been getting dogged on a lot this year, and their o-3 record deserves it. But with losses to Dallas, Buffalo and the Giants, the schedule hasn't exactly been favorable. This week they play the 1-2 Redskins who just lost to Detroit. I'm not saying Tampa is going to win, but with Washington only averaging about 13 points a game, asking them to cover nine points is a lot to expect. Tampa has a new QB under center this week and, while that might lead to some defensive points for the Skins, I think it'll be a net gain for the Bucs. Look for Tampa to cover and possible win.

8) Seattle (+10.5) vs. Indianapolis (-10.5)

No Marvin Harrison? No problem. Peyton Manning is having a great season (again) and spreading the ball around with ease. Meanwhile, Seattle will be missing the keys to their offense as Matt Hasselbeck and Julius Jones are both expected to sit out with injuries. It's a big spread, but the Colts have a mighty big offense. Also, if the Colts' defense could hold the Cardinals to just 10 points on the road last week, don't expect Seattle to do much better. Take Manning and his Colts to cover.

9) NY Jets (+7.5) vs New Orleans (-7.5)

Another marquee matchup as two undefeated teams clash to maintain perfection. The Jets have been a true revelation this season thanks to Rex Ryan's defense and the mature QB'ing from USC rookie Mark Sanchez. Can the defense slow down the league's best offense? A little...but not enough. Drew Brees has a very quick release and just doesn't sacked very often. I think this will be close in the first half and I predict a huge day for Leon Washington, but the Jets don't have enough punch to keep with the Saints on offense. In a fun game, take the Saints.

10) Buffalo (PK) vs. Miami (PK)

Terrell Owens didn't catch a pass last week for the first time in FOREVER. He's been on his best behavior this week, but there's little doubt he'll be getting a ton of targets this week. He's a ticking time bomb and he will eventually go off. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have a new QB as Brad Pennington's season is over due to a shoulder injury. Chad Henne has a good arm, and the Buffalo defense is hurting all over, but he's basically a rookie...and rookies make mistakes. With Marshawn Lynch returning from a 3-game suspension this week, look for the Bills to own Miami in this "pick" game.

11) St. Louis (+10) vs. San Francisco (-10)

Two big injuries of note here: Mark Bulger is out for the Rams, and Kyle Boller is in. Given Boller's mobility and concussion-free brain, this is a good thing. For the 49'ers, Frank Gore is out, rookie Glenn Coffee is in. I like the rookie, but there's no replacing Gore. I think St. Louis will lose, especially without their top WR Laurent Robinson, but I think this will be a lot closer than ten points. I think Boller is going to provide a spark this week and get Donnie Avery involved downfield. The Rams will beat the spread.

12) Dallas (-3) vs. Denver (+3)

Denver is one of the weaker 3-0 teams you'll ever see. They aren't bad, and by the end of the season they may very well deserve the good record they'll likely have, but their current record is a bit of smoke and mirrors. Dallas is hurt with injuries to Marion Barber and Felix Jones, but Tashard Choice is more than capable of filling in, and Barber will probably get a few carries today, too. But really look for Tony Romo to pour it on today. That Denver secondary is beatable and Dallas has the speed to do it. Also, DeMarcus Ware gets his first sack this week. And his second. Dallas easily covers.

13) San Diego (+7) vs. Pittsburgh (-7)

A combined 3-3 on the season, the Bolts and the Steelers have both been disappointments. This week the Chargers get LT back, while the Steelers will be without Willie Parker. As a 7-point underdog, I think this game is a steal. Quentin Jammer and Antonio Cromartie can hang with Pittsburgh's talented WRs, and the Chargers should be able to get pressure on Big Ben Roethlisberger. Take the Chargers to WIN.

14) Green Bay (+4) vs. Minnesota (-4)

Brett Favre against the cheeseheads? Hard to believe, but that's what happens when you refuse to retire when it's time. Favre has helped the Vikings to a 3-0 record, and he usually plays highly motivated during Monday Night Football games. Even so, this will be the moment where anyone who still questions whether the Packers made the right move regarding the replacement of Favre with Rogers will finally succumb to reality. Favre is done. Rogers is the present and future. Green Bay is still putting things together, but they will on Monday night. They'll beat the spread.

Mortal Lock #1: Cincinnati (-7)
Mortal Lock #2: Tampa Bay (+7.5)
Mortal Lock #3: San Diego (-7)

Flushed with last week's success, I've wagered a total of $160 his week:

1) Dallas (-3): $20 to win $17.39
2) Buffalo (PK): $20 to win $18.18
3) New England (-1.5): $20 to win $18.18
4) San Diego (+7): $25 to win $17.86
5) Tampa Bay (+9): $40 to win $36.36
6) Cincinnati (-7): $25 to win $23.81
7) 5-game parlay picking Cincinnati, TB, Buffalo, Dallas, San Diego: $5 to win $109.03
8) 7-game parlay picking Cincinnati, NY Giants, Tampa, Buffalo, St. Louis, Dallas, San Diego: $5 to win $393.56

Happy betting.

Friday Night Video

Well, well, well. Here we are. Friday again, but for the first time in almost three months...no Rick Springfield video to play for you. The world is my oyster. I still feel stuck in the 80's, however, so let's get a female voice into the mix for a pleasant change of pace.

Before she struck out on her own, Maria McKee was the face of an LA-based band called Lone Justice. Although the band was a darling of critics, they never were able to achieve the kind of commercial success needed to keep the band together. While I was never a huge fan of McKee the solo artist (unlike Brian P. who still adores every step she takes), the album "Shelter" by Lone Justice remains one of my favorites. Here's the title track performed live in New York back in 1986. Great song, great band, great video, great way to kick off the weekend. Enjoy.

My frown just turned upside down.

Dallas Judge rules Texas Ban on gay marriage unconstitutional

From Staff Reports

06:26 PM CDT on Thursday, October 1, 2009

In a first for Texas and a sweeping rejection of the state’s ban on gay marriage, a judge has cleared the way for two gay Dallas men to divorce.

A voter-approved state constitutional amendment and the Texas Family Code prohibit same-sex marriages or civil unions. And the Texas attorney general had intervened in the two men’s divorce case, arguing that since a gay marriage isn’t recognized in Texas, a Texas court can’t dissolve one through divorce.

But Dallas state District Judge Tena Callahan ruled Thursday that the state’s bans on same-sex marriage violates the constitutional guarantee to equal protection under the law.

She denied the attorney general’s intervention and said her court “has jurisdiction to hear a suit for divorce filed by persons legally married in another jurisdiction.”

“This is huge news. We’re ecstatic,” said Dallas attorney Peter Schulte, who represents the man who filed the divorce. The man, identified in court documents as J.B., asked that he and his former partner not be identified.

Schulte said the ruling was a surprise and that he hoped to have a divorce order for the judge to sign in the “next few weeks.”

In a prepared statement, Attorney General Greg Abbott said he would appeal the ruling “to defend the traditional definition of marriage that was approved by Texas voters.

“The laws and constitution of the State of Texas define marriage as an institution involving one man and one woman. Today's ruling purports to strike down that constitutional definition — despite the fact that it was recently adopted by 75 per cent of Texas voters.”

*Update: Interestingly, within minutes of this article being posted online by The Dallas Morning News, the original headline---the more dramatic one listed in this blog---was changed to the more subdued "Dallas judge paves way for gay couple to get divorce." Hmm...

Mad Men comes to Sesame Street

I knew this parody was coming as I'd written a trivia question about it a few months back, but here it finally is...the integration of Mad Men with Sesame Street.



A little disappointing actually. The best parts are the opening credits, and then again at the end where Don Draper says, "Good work, sycophants." Oh, and I guess I like the line where he talks about "putting a sticky smile on your face," but then I might've taken something different from that bit. Yeah, probably.

So what have the children learned today? They've learned how to be mad, how to be sad, how to be happy, how to buy, how to sell, and how to put sticky smiles on people's faces. Good work, Seasame Street.