Thursday, November 26, 2009

You Betcha! (early edition)

With a 7-8-1 record, last week was a respectable return to mediocrity. Coming on the heels of the 3-11-1 debacle that drained all of my previous winnings, I'll take it...especially since I bet big on just a small number of games I liked. The end result was $$$. There's a whopping three Thanksgiving Day games today, so let's get those knocked out first. The rest of the week's picks will appear this weekend.

Last Week:

Against the Spread: 7-8-1
Mortal Locks: 2-1
Net Profit: $30.00

Overall Totals:

Against the Spread: 74-67-3 (.525)
Mortal Locks: 18-12 (.600)
Net Profit: $1.12

Week 12 (road teams are always listed first)

1) Green Bay (-13) vs. Detroit

Detroit had a thrilling come-from-behind win last week as rookie QB Matt Stafford tossed his fifth TD with no time left on the clock. But that was last week. This week Stafford is likely out due to a shoulder injury, their top WR Calvin Johnson is also probably out, and the Packers are most definitely not the Brown. If Brady Quinn could light up the Lions for 37 points, there's no telling what sort of damage Aaron Rodgers can do...especially now that he's clicking with Greg Jennings and now that TE Jermichael Finley is back from injury. Take the Packers to cover.

2) Oakland (+14) vs. Dallas

I've been wrong every single week when it comes to the Cowboys---alternating between giving them too much credit and not enough. This week I have a hunch their offense could be ready to break out of their doldrums, but the Raiders are one of those tricky teams to predict of late. With JaMarcus Russell finally benched, Bruce Gradowski led the Raiders to a stunning upset of the Bengals last week. I'm not predicting a win for Oakland, but two TDs sure seems like an awfully big spread for an offense that's only scored one TD in each of the last two weeks. Take Oakland.

3) NY Giants (-7) vs. Denver

After winning their first six games, Denver has now lost four in a row...and this week will make it five. Both the Giants and Broncos got off to quick starts, but the Giants are the more legit team here...even if just barely. Eli Manning finally looked sharp last week, shredding the Atlanta defense for three TDs and nearly 400 yards. Things won't be quite so easy for him in Denver, but the inept Denver offense should make that shaky Giant defense seem sturdier than the one which gave up 31 points last week. Take the Giants to win by more than a TD.

Because my sports book has a promo this week, one in which I get $20 if I bet $20 on all three Thanksgiving games, I'm rolling out bets on all of the above games:

1) Detroit: $20 to win $19.05
2) Oakland: $20 to win $16.67
3) NY Giants: $20 to win $21.00

Mortal Lock:

1) Oakland (+14)
2) Detroit (+13)
3) Tk

Happy Thanksgiving!


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